A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
